According to Harris-Decima, the answer is yes. And when only the Liberal and Conservative parties are presented as an option, the popular opinion is that a Liberal majority would be best.
First of all, I would argue that the Liberal brand has bigger pull than Michael Ignatieff as its leader. Therefore when push comes to shove in an actual election, the reality is that the leader at the given moment in time has a serious bearing on the outcome (remember Stephane Dion?) Iggyssiah’s halo is starting to tarnish. Even Barbara Yaffe is becoming discontented!
But the Liberal party has bigger problems than Iggy - the other three parties are their biggest challenge.
W.T. Stanbury has an excellent and very well-documented essay in today’s Hill Times – How minority government has changed Ottawa’s political landscape. Until the Bloc loses some influence in Quebec, or the Liberals can successfully pull votes away from the NDP and the Greens, I don’t see how they can ever hope to achieve another majority:
…We have seen the persistence of two “serious contender” parties (Conservatives and Liberals), and two “minority parties” (the BQ and NDP). The NDP (successor to the CCF in 1961) has long been the third party in federal politics. In the six elections between 1993 and 2008, the NDP won the following numbers of seats in the House of Commons: 9, 21, 13, 19, 29, and 37 respectively. It has always won fewer seats than its share of the national popular vote.
The Bloc Québécois first elected MPs in 1993. By focusing only on Quebec districts (75 of 308 since 2004), the BQ has won the following number of seats in the six elections between 1993 and 2008: 54, 44, 38, 54, 51, and 49. (On the BQ’s appeal, see Jeffrey Simpson, Globe and Mail, Oct.18, 2008. )
There may soon be a third minor party with seats in the Commons—the Green Party which was founded in 1983. In the 2004 election, the party received 4.3 per cent of the popular vote. This increased to 4.5 per cent in 2006 and 6.8 per cent in 2008. In no case, however, did the Greens win any seats. It now it has a charismatic leader in Elizabeth May and it is cushioned by the quarterly federal subsidy (a total of $1.8-million in 2009) since that election allowing it to finance a headquarters operation in Ottawa…
But Michael Ignatieff is turning out to be one the Bloc’s biggest assets. How does he plan to convince the Quebecois to vote for the Liberals instead?
One thing is clear – Canadians are sick and tired of the partisanship and sniping. Minority governments are constantly in danger of falling so as Stanbury points out, policy making tends to be short-term. “There is no medium to longer-term thinking. It’s all about how will an issue play in the next election—coming soon.”
As to the Harris-Decima polling result stating that “45 per cent versus 42 per cent — would support the idea of a coalition government after the next election”, I’d have to see the survey details to buy that one. And in any case, it’s close to a tie. And what happened to the other 13%?
One thing for sure – Canadians are getting fed up. We want results and accountability.
But will we ever get it?
* * * *
Related: Quebec to be fierce two-way battle between Grits and Bloc: pollster Léger – Hill Times (H/T NNW):
“It will be more difficult for the Bloc to maintain their number of seats because on the economy issue they’re not strong,” said Jean-Marc Léger of Léger Marketing. “On the identity issue, [the Bloc] are strong, so it depends what kind of campaign we have. The more the campaign is on the economy, the more Liberals will be elected. The more the campaign is on the nationalism issue the more Bloc will win seats. The party that controls the agenda will win seats in Quebec.”
So let’s see some of your economic policy, Mr. Ignatieff.
Have the Liberals gone soft? – Tom Flanagan:
...Late in the 2006 campaign, the desperate Liberals released a suite of negative ads that backfired against them. Like every other tactic in politics, negative advertising is only effective if it is well executed. These ads were so far over the top that they were parodied by the late-lamented Frank magazine: “Is Stephen Harper the Antichrist? We just don’t know. He refuses to talk about it. Now why would he do that?”
Since then, however, the tough-as-nails Liberal warriors have begun to sound like whiny schoolgirls, complaining about Conservative negative ads. Not only do they whimper when the Conservatives run their ads against Liberal leaders Stéphane Dion and Michael Ignatieff, but they complain when the Conservatives attack the Bloc Québécois for having voted in Parliament against minimum sentences for trafficking in children under 18…
* * * *
Afternoon Update: We now have the poll results available online (H/T ITQ).
* * * *
Tuesday Update:
Let’s go with the majority next time – Sun
Do Canadians Want A Majority, Or Just Stability? – Raphael
* * * *
Wednesday Update: Majority government? It’s in Quebecers’ hands – Gazette:
...Quebecers more than others have it in their power to break this log-jam, by taking a more active hand in national governance instead of “parking” their votes with an increasingly irrelevant Bloc Québécois. Had Quebecers voted for national parties in the same proportion as other Canadians in the last election, we would have a majority government. The instability of minority times makes the government of Canada weaker, which serves the sovereignists’ interests but not the public interest…
coalition is a definite I hope that all Canadians are made aware of this during the upcoming election whenever
I find that poll deceiving.
I find most people I talk to are very satisfied with the Prime Minister
why must the Prime Minister and he must apologize while the media spouts out and out lies about the Prime Minister and the taking of communion and no retraction or apology is forthcoming from the CTV
fh
Why does the media keep referring to Elizabeth May as charismatic?
I saw a screeching windbag at the debates last election.
None of her interviews have exposed any of this so-called charisma.
This is not a case of more people wanting a Liberal majority than a CPC majority. It’s a case of more people fearing a CPC majority than a Liberal majority.
This represents a failure of the CPC’s ability to get out its message.
And although there are many reasons for this, media bias being the main one, the CPC leadership has contributed to that failure by the continuing stream of partisanship and attack ads that we have seen in the past year. It might be a useful short term strategy for staying in power, but in the long term it will damage the electability of the party.
I will now await the usual ad hominem assaults on me, accusations of being a troll, and so on that follow any attempt to criticize anything our party does, since clearly it’s perfect, our leaders make no errors, and our strategists can predict the future with 100% certainty.
Actually, I thought that was a pretty fair comment Lori.
(BTW, check out Stephen Taylor’s latest post. I think you’ll find it interesting.)
There is not only two parties, so such a hypothetical question is absolutley meaningless and can only be used for massive spin. The only option for a majority I can see as a result of an election at this point is a coalition majority. We all know with the way such an attempt was handled the last time out, that that option is off the table. And if the Liberals are dumb enough to try again with the Bloc involved, then everything that Harper has stated about their little coup attempt the last time out will be proven absolutely correct.
Come to think of it, the Tories should ignore the Liberals, the NDP, the Bloc, and the Greens the next election and mention that they are running against the coalition. You know, the one that Michael Ignatieff didn’t support. But signed. Then didn’t support afterwards. Well………..whatever, you get the picture.
I too think Lori’s comment is a fair comment.
The CPC needs to stop making themselves the target by smartening up re: getting their message out AND given the oppos. less with which to work.
I’m saying this again today that despite whatever personal issues Gerry Nicholls has with the PM his post on exactly what the CPC should do to avoid the oppo. traps is very good, and along the lines of both Lori and Gabby(last week).
Also, check out Tom Flanagan’s column at the G&M today on why negative ads done well still, and will always work despite how we say we detest them.
charismatic indeed – aunt lizzie will have to change a tremendous amount to EVER be charismatic – without her (and her uber left rants and anti-Harper bashing) the greens would likely have a member – she is their anchor, Iggy is ours – he is so close to the tory line, it is amazing that the lieberals put up with it
Joanne’s post: from the Canadian Press article:
“Conservative attack ads that suggest Bloc Québécois members are soft on pedophiles are a dirty tactic unworthy of Canadian politics, Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff charged Saturday.
In a stump-style speech at a Stampede breakfast in Calgary, Ignatieff said the ads, which blast the Bloc for voting against a law that would impose minimum sentences in child trafficking cases, further divide the country.
“I’m in politics to defeat the Bloc Québécois with real arguments, rather than slurs and vicious ad hominem personal attacks,” Ignatieff told a cheering crowd of several hundred Liberal supporters.”
First of all, the Conservative brochure did NOT say the Bloc was soft on pedophiles. On the other hand, the suggestion that they are soft on pedophiles is a matter of interpretation. Guess who makes that interpretation!!
The point being made is that the Bloc voted against minimum sentences for these criminals. Of course, the media and the Liberals, etc. will turn anything for political gain. Just look at the host episode!!
The other point in the article clearly shows that, according to Iggy, attacking the Bloc for not supporting minimum sentences in child trafficking cases will further divide the country. Just look at what that means!!
In the third paragraph above, I’d like to know where the slurs and personal attacks are?? He must have been looking at his own party’s tactics!!
As for the Harris-Decima poll, there appears to be a contradiction. On the one hand, it says Canadians are ready for a majority government and, then in the next breath, says a majority would support a coalition government after the next election.
Sure, a coalition government would eliminate the uncertainty and nonsense we have now. This suggests either the poll is faulty or the public is ill-informed and uninformed which is very possible.
On the other hand, it could very well be another feeble attempt by the desperate Liberals and the biased media to rid Canada of the Conservative government. Maybe they ought to bring in the devil to help them out!!
Sorry for being negative and suspicious, but the Liberals, etc., the polls, and the media have made me that way.
“The more the campaign is on the economy, the more Liberals will be elected. The more the campaign is on the nationalism issue the more Bloc will win seats.”
The first statement above is laughable. The Liberals getting elected based on their economic platform? What platform?? Based on what we’ve heard, or not heard, from the Liberals the past year or so, who would vote for them??
The second statement above is dead on. In Quebec, we have nationalists and separatists. Ok, there are a few federalists.
You had to know Harris-Decima would be working on something of this nature when the Conservatives have been coming up in the polls. It’s meddling, that’s what they do, that’s their game.
Just what we need, another Liberal majority to do whatever they please in go to hell the style of Jean Chretien. People have short memories.
Sorry, it’s a Conservative Majority we need to clean out the barn.
Polls are, for the most part, junk science. Like any model, they arrive at their predictions with an incomplete and often biased picture.
For instance think of this poll and its crystal ball accuracy:
“May 07, 2008 04:30 PM
THE CANADIAN PRESS A new poll suggests most Canadians support the idea of a carbon tax …
The findings of The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey suggest the politically risky move of putting a price on carbon holds a potential payoff.”
So in the absence of reliable models and polling it is more accurate to rely on past, similar events. What we do know is that the last coalition attempt was not well received. Letters poured into the GG and the MSM, demonstrations were held and the polls reinforced the direct observations:
December 5, 2008 Ipsos-Reid poll
Bricker said the Conservatives’ spike in popularity appears to reflect a backlash against the Liberals and New Democrats whose support slid … Ironically, Bricker said, the prospect of a coalition government involving the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Quebecois may end up allowing Harper to get the majority government he wasn’t able to get on his own on Oct. 14.
I suspect that many blue Liberals do not support a coalition with the NDP. Especially during economic weakness when NDP wealth redistribution and environmental policies combined with Liberal Big New Government Program agendas will equal new taxes, higher utility bills and increased government spending. I doubt that the middle classes will stand for further erosion of their income and savings. MI is not a charming messiah figure who is capable of selling that crap sandwich.
We can safely assume that as we type these missives, representatives of the Liberal and NDP, maybe or maybe not the BQ, and almost certainly the Greens, are sitting down and trying to figure out in what way they can collude to try to make sure the CPC does not end up as the governing party in the next election.
Ignatieff probably will not turn over major policy decisions to the NDP, but will he find enough bones to toss them to permit Layton to join him without losing face?
Because the CPC won the last election with a strong minority, a coalition of three parties, one separatist, to rob them of parliamentary control seemed dishonest to most people. It sank mostly because it was clear that a majority of Canadians did not support it.
Fast forward a year later. Fall 2009 election. Mr. Harper and the CPC have a much higher, and more virulent, negative perception than in the fall of 2008. Mr. Ignatieff is not a complete buffoon like Dion. A lot of the conservative base is disillusioned because of various moves made by the PMO over the past year. Quebec is a CPC wasteland. It is impossible to look at that reality and be optimistic.
And even if the CPC wins again, it will be with a weaker minority, enough that the NDP and Libs together have more seats than them. They throw Lizzie May into cabinet by some manoever or another. I think that a majority of Canadians would not be horrified by this. I fear that is our near future.
Then I think further into the future. The liberals are forced to ally with the NDP time and again because they cannot win enough seats in the West or in Quebec. The NDP becomes a long term permanent coalition partner to the libs. Worst case scenario.
I think it’s an interesting poll because I have had the feeling for some time that Canadians are getting fed up with minority government. Caution should be used however in comparing a generic Liberal majority to a generic Conservative majority.
I think a better question would have been
1)would you support a Harper majority government
2)would you support an Ignatieff majority government
3)would you support a coalition government
But the answer might not have been what was wanted.
BTW, in my comment @ #10, I was referring to all political pollsters, when I wrote “It’s meddling, that’s what they do, that’s their game”.
Some people go out and vote according to poll results. Why else would they matter?
the Liberals, etc., the polls, and the media have made me that way.
Joanne,
When Ignatieff said “I have no intentions of wearing the recession- meaning, you are not worth his attention.
When the liberals refuse to stand and vote for the ANTI TERRORIST ACT BILL. you me and all innocent canadians were not worth their vote.
When the military begged for money for decent footwear clothes and equiptiment. the liberals gave them garbage.
the liberals said “I FEEL YOUR PAIN’ yet refuse point blank to return the millions of dollars which they stole from us all.
When you hear the opposition parties rant and rave daily for the return of criminals instead of your safety and protection- I pretty much know where we canadian citizens stand in their eyes- no where.
when you see ‘OPPOSITION rally and show support for: HAMAS, ALQAEDA, TAMIL-LTTE-TIGERS, HEZBOLLAH, TALIBAN………
The ‘BLUE PRINT’ to the ‘OPPOSITION PARTIES outlook reveals who they are and who they support.
Joanne. Our troops are giving their lives so we can have the DEMOCRACY we want. no liberal ndp or bloc are going to tear apart our democracy -so help me. we, yes, we, are going to help our soldiers fight for our freedom and democracy.
This poll question is ridiculous. These pollsters obviously live in some parallel universe, which real voters will never enter.
The obvious poll question would ask whether voters want a Conservative majority or a Coalition majority. As Harper told Maclean’s editorial board a few months ago, THAT question is essentially what he will campaign on.
It’s uncharacteristic of Harper to reveal his strategy so early. But his reasoning must be that he needs to lay the groundwork for that “Cons vs Coalition” narrative, well before the election.
I’m a big believer that emotions drive voters more than anything else. Thus Harper polled at 51 % at the height of the Coalition kerfuffle last December, because of the anger, disgust, sense of betrayal that voters felt.
Harper won’t be able to recreate that level of negative emotions against the Coaltion, but he’s going to push those same buttons a lot, I’m convinced. It would help if the media played along, even a bit, with Harper’s preferred narrative. But I’m not holding my breath.
(#3) – I really feel that statement – that “more people fear a conservative majority than a liberal majority is the complete doings of the MSM. I have heard Jane Tabor a million times say – “just what would ‘HARPER’ do if he had a majority?” The liberals, like her and Roger Smith – push this line whenever they can – like the negative ads they used against PM Harper in his first election – his hidden agenda. They do not use that any more, but use the phrase – “what would he do with a majority?” Better never give him one, or he will set this earth on fire!. Jane Tabor and Roger Smith are so liberal – they can not even stoop to say Prime Minister Harper – they just call him HARPER. Roger even made the comment, more than likely at the next G-8 – Iggy will be the Prime Minister anyway.(He can only hope and pray!).. They are the ones pushing this, and instead of the conservatives running ads against Iggy – and his time away – they should push their own record…. and what they plan to do. Means the liberals are running on nothing but the media pushing to destroy the Conservatives…. it is up to us to push what has been accomplished during these Conservative times…
Former PM Paul Martin and the Liberals were to get the largest majority in Canadian history according to the polls before the election writ was dropped.
Stephane Dion and the Liberals were to get at the very least a minority before the election writ was dropped, according to the polls.
Didn’t quite turn out that way, did it?
There is only one poll that counts and that is on election day.
Polling predictions are about as accurate as Glo-Bull Warming models, nothing but BS.
Good morning! Good posts this morning, only one coffee spewer, Elizabeth Mae “charistmatic” woo!
“Lori” good points and things to think through carefully, I don’t like attack ads, if you are defining them as “troops in our cities” kinda stuff. Having said that, I view them as Truth Ads when the presentation is Mr. Ignatieff talking his way through defining another position, nationality, etc. I.E. His very own words. I would however consider background music, perhaps the “nasal whine of ethnic music”
Over the last 20 years we “westerners” have had Leaders such as Preston Manning, Stockwell Day, compared as KKK Leaders, and worshipers of “purple dinosaurs”
A clip of Mr Ignatieff squalling over an ad pointing out the Bloc voted against Bill C-268 is not an “attack” IMO if Mr Ignatieff thinks that he is delusional, and he is the one to use the word “pedophile”. This is important because it tells voters where the Bloc stands on certain issues. It also tells the Public that Mr Ignatieff has a very thin skin, and will defend his “Coalition” allies, tooth and nail. It tells this Voter the Coalition is very much alive.
The Conservatives must do a better job getting out their accomplishments, true, when Bills don’t pass they also need to say why. The ads I have seen have been a very mild form of the genra the Liberals perfected, we are doing them one better,they must present facts. We must as for the most part the MSM is hostile, and very indifferent to Conservative accomplishments.IMO
As far as the coverage the Prime Minister is getting, well, if 100 seconds counts that much? The real accomplishments of G8, the other Leaders, coming to points of view expressed by our PM, not so much. I see the coverage of P M Harper as bordering on stalking, at the least very biased.
Dave Rutherford just had on a rep from Harris Decima talking about this poll. Fairly good analysis. Both Dave and the rep seem to think this favors the CPC more so the Libs and it could be bad for the NDP.
Go have a listen later. Interesting. Go to around the 10:35 point.
http://www.am770chqr.com/Station/AudioVault.aspx
Liberal majority? This country is even more screwed up than I thought.
Remember Lori, that the Dippers and Libs combined have to form a majority, not just more seats than the Cons, in order to sieze government. And to seize government, the coalition would again have to be formalized with a written agreement.
Also, IMO, the LibDippersGreens would have to campaign on a coalition, no denying it like last time, for the GG/Canadians to consider it legitimate (‘illegitimate coalition because I didn’t vote for a coalition when I voted Liberal’…etc)
Canadians MUST know going in what their Liberal or Dipper or Green votes means.
No more ‘vote Liberal to stop Harper’.
So the msm assumes that ‘strategic voting’ would work in a ‘LibDipper coalition’ favour.
I say, think again. Many Liberals are repulsed at the idea of Dippers in a Liberal cabinet.
Combined, LibDippers now have 114 seats, they have to take another 41 seats from the Cons and Bloc, ”not each other”, for a coalition majority.
IMO, any hint of the possibility of a coalition, and the Dippers run home to ensure ‘more Dippers in cabinet’.
So the NDP will actually strengthen in a LibDipper coalition government….which will FOREVER lock Liberals into a coalition, never again will Liberals have a majority on it’s own.
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that Iffy sticks with his ‘I am open to arrangements’ with the Dippers. That IS a coalition, and the Con truth ads will make sure Canadians realize it.
See, if we had any type of small “c” conservative MSM reporting and commentary, educating people and making them think, really think about things, then I think that Harris-Decima poll would tell a different tale.
Our conservative values are not getting talked about and promoted. That’s the problem. Most Canadians have only thought about things a certain way, since, well Trudeau and have just gone with the flow and accepted that way of thinking as correct. Have they even considered a different point of view??
Janey Tabor is about to find out what it’s like to have a Conservative majority government.
I believe that before the official term is through that Iggy & company will force an issue and it will result in an election.
Janey & Fife will break out into hives at the thought of a con majority and will rant on as they always do.
They’ll lose even more credibility and end up as servers at a MacDonald’s take out line, barely within their mental abilities.
The political party that can best project optimism about the future is the party that will capture a strong minority / majority.
Given Harper’s penchant for hyperpartisanship, with its strong emphasis on negative campaigning, it’s hard to picture him projecting positive messaging / hope during a campaign.
The Waffle doesn’t quite have that potential either, although his threshold is a tad higher than Harper’s. He’s not as much into hyperpartisanship, which most Canadians will interpret as a plus. But, far too often, his attempts to project hope come across as empty bombast.
Back to Harper: realistically, he’s only got one more chance to grab a majority. January 2010 will conclude his fourth year in power, which is certainly long enough for Canadian voters to say he’s had a decent shot at running the country.
man i hate my fellow canadians. i wish to hell at least one of them thought that less government, fewer laws and regulations, more individual freedom was more more important than the next payoff from the government in power.
Frmgrl @20 – Thanks for that link.
They’re talking about this on Newstalk 570 right now. You can listen online.
old white guy, I think, sadly, you might just have that right.
I added an update with the actual PDF from Harris Decima. Haven’t had a chance to read it through yet though.
Lori @ #12.
“Fast forward a year later. Fall 2009 election. Mr. Harper and the CPC have a much higher, and more virulent, negative perception than in the fall of 2008. Mr. Ignatieff is not a complete buffoon like Dion. A lot of the conservative base is disillusioned because of various moves made by the PMO over the past year. Quebec is a CPC wasteland.
They throw Lizzie May into cabinet by some manoever or another. I think that a majority of Canadians would not be horrified by this.
Then I think further into the future. The liberals are forced to ally with the NDP time and again because they cannot win enough seats in the West or in Quebec. The NDP becomes a long term permanent coalition partner to the libs. Worst case scenario.
The more we can get each Opps leader talking anything related to the Coalition, the better. There is NO WAY they will all be singing from the same songsheet. Enter (hopefully) the media, who often love asking one leader in a scrum: “the other guy said blah blah blah, [about the Coalition possibility]. What is your response ?”
And we will get inadvertent support from the likes of James Travers. He is sure to lecture us all about how “Canadians don’t understand how our Parliamentary system works. Voters don’t elect a Prime Minister. The PM is chosen by the elected MPs in the House, blah blah”.
Now if Professor Iggy trips up, reverts to lecturing mode, and REPEATS and DEFENDS Travers “logic” he will be making a major blunder. The obvious spin from us will be “AHA, he is indeed preparing to form a Coalition, no matter his other denials”.
The Opps are going to have one hell of a time dealing with the worries and hopes of the electorate re Coalition possibilities. Shouldn’t Duceppe be trumping up a Coalition as being “good for Quebec” ? And Jacques Parizeau will surely enter the fray, to our advantage.
If we want to hit a bit below the belt, we can, in ROC, replay Iggy’s signing on to the Coalition. While in Quebec, we can replay Iggy’s rejection of the Coalition concept. We’ve got Iggy coming and going on this, and a few other issues.
Man, the possibilities are endless, and fun to contemplate.
Please disregard #31, my mouse is acting up again.
Lori @ #12.
“Fast forward a year later. Fall 2009 election. Mr. Harper and the CPC have a much higher, and more virulent, negative perception than in the fall of 2008.”
Disagree with that. If the truth be told, and if Canadians are informed, I don’t see how there could be a “much higher, and more virulent, negative perception.”
On the contrary, there should be a positive perception of PM Harper and the Conservatives guiding this country with a minority government, during a global recession, facing a coalition threat, enduring Liberal and other opposition attack ads, dealing with a hostile media, and suspect polls. I’d say they’ve been rather brilliant.
“Mr. Ignatieff is not a complete buffoon like Dion.”
Debatable. Where is this brilliant, intelligent, intellectual guy named Iggy we’ve been told about for so long? Where is the evidence in his actions, words or deeds? I fail to see it. I guess I’m not intelligent enough to recognize it.
“A lot of the conservative base is disillusioned because of various moves made by the PMO over the past year.”
A lot?? What percentage? Is this fact or opinion? What is so bad that there is such disillusionment?
“Quebec is a CPC wasteland.”
Disagree. That seems to say there is not the slightest hope for Conservatives in Quebec. As others have said, it’s a matter of communications!!
At least, give the people of Quebec an opportunity to get to know what the Conservatives are all about. IMO, much more messaging and presence at Quebec activities is required.
Since we have been receiving Conservative brochures in the mail lately, the Conservative poll numbers have gone up. I’m not saying it’s because of those brochures but it’s possible. At least, the Conservatives are addressing the Quebecois now!!
“They (NDP & Libs) throw Lizzie May into cabinet by some manoever or another. I think that a majority of Canadians would not be horrified by this.”
If they are not, I think it’s pretty sad. We complain about the level of debate in this country and, in the same breath, nominate May for a government position. I guess what we saw and heard of her during the last election debate was all an illusion.
PhantomObserver said:
July 13th, 2009 at 1:36 pm
The political party that can best project optimism about the future is the party that will capture a strong minority / majority
____________________________\
Exactly.
As for the comments about the media – they are of course a part of the problem. But to lay all the blame on them is not entirely fair (National Post, at times MacLeans and rarely even the Globe – remember the Globe fairly strongly endorsed PM Harper in the last election) are not entirely hateful to the CPC. The CPC and Harper took their greatest lumps in the media not on policy, but on excessive partisanship and when breaking their own promises. Most of the CPC’s wounds are self inflicted, amplified by a media that is at times vindictive.
Canada is not a level playing field for conservatives. We have a 5-10% handicap in any national election, and 25% handicap in media support. We overcame it last year, and were pretty close to a majority, failing only because of that last minute collapse in Quebec. We can win. We were winning. But things have not been done right in the past 6-9 months.
Here’s a blast from the past and is why I do not put any stock in any of these polls;
Poll suggests uneasy Liberal majority
By BRIAN LAGHI and CAMPBELL CLARK
From Saturday’s Globe and Mail
Ottawa — Canada’s Liberals appear to be creeping toward political recovery in Quebec as Prime Minister Paul Martin hit the unofficial campaign trail yesterday against the backdrop of a new poll showing the makings of a more comfortable majority.
However, the Globe and Mail/CTV survey also shows the Liberals are facing a volatile national electorate whose support it can’t take for granted. And while the party continued the flurry of pre-election announcements, much of the business of government continued to grind to a halt in Ottawa, increasingly replaced with the clamour of electioneering leading up to the vote.
The new survey, conducted by polling firm Ipsos-Reid from Tuesday to Thursday, shows the Liberals down slightly in national voting intentions, but up in Quebec, and winning more seats nationally thanks to shifting loyalties in the regions across the country.
“Queen gives Chrétien Order of Merit
CBC.ca – 1 hour ago
Queen Elizabeth has appointed former prime minister Jean Chrétien to the Order of Merit, placing him in the exclusive ranks of such figures as Albert Schweitzer, Mother Teresa and Nelson Mandela.”
…-
Ex-Liberal PM Chretien is hereby awarded:
1. The Ad$Cam* Ordure of Demerit, and,
2. The Sidewinder** MaoStrongMedal, No Class.
3. See Power Corp.’s Wall of Shame for the “exclusive ranks” of Ad$Cam.
…-
*Ad$Cam:
CBC News Indepth: Federal sponsorship scandal
Gomery report: Major Findings CBC News Online | November 1, 2005. The following list of findings is taken from the summary document of “Who is Responsible? …
http://www.cbc.ca/news/background/groupaction/gomeryreport_findings.html
**Sidewinder: Chinese Intelligence Services and Triads Financial …
15 See Project Shehang. CID/RCMP. 16 See Project Shehang. CID/RCMP. 17 ibid. 18 ibid. 19. PRIME TIME CRIME Current Headlines · Sidewinder web page 2.
http://www.primetimecrime.com/…/Sidewinder%20page%201.htm
Best polls show positive.
Go, Canadians.
…-
“Canada Stocks Gain as Banks Rally on Business Optimism; Energy Shares Fall”
“Bank of Canada Survey Has Best Sales Gauge Since ‘99 (Update1)
July 13 (Bloomberg) — Canadian businesses are the most optimistic about their future sales prospects in almost a decade, and obtaining new loans is becoming less difficult, Bank of Canada surveys showed today.”
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ae3vpubQ0nwM
remember when chretien showed off his prized golf balls signed by famous golf players at the same time ignoring the questions the lawyers asked him.
Well let me tell you folks right now, those signed golf balls are worth more than you.
Charles Adler offers up positive commentary on Harper, on wafergate, lateness and other stuff.
Also asking his listeners “does being NICE matter to you, when it comes to leadership ?”
Followed by an interview with Jeff Walker of Harris-Decima on their latest poll.
Highly recommended for the many Harpermaniacs out there !
Bring up Monday, July 13th, 1:00 PM
Fast forward to the 35 minute mark.
Link
Chretien gets the Order of Merit from the Queen?
Bully for him.
I share Lori’s POV. I am not as optimistic as some here about the CPC’s chances at reelection, let alone getting a majority.
Many of us small c-conservatives agree much of the MSM is presently biased against the Conservatives.
Through which filter do uncommitted voters get their information?
Do you think they read through these blogs, trying to hunt down information? No.
Do you think they go to the Conservative.ca website to get their information straight from the horse’s mouth? No.
Do you think they peruse the 10%ers, reading every line, and googling to confirm or dispute whatever information is presented there? No.
How are many opinions formed?
By a rational exposition of the facts? No.
By a sensationalized 30-second clip (if that long) on the evening news, probably using emotionally-charged rather than neutral language.
As Lori eloquently said @ #3, the CPC going negative “might be a useful short term strategy for staying in power, but in the long term it will damage the electability of the party.”
That damage has been mostly self-inflicted, giving the opposition – including those in the MSM who’ll focus on such strategy – the ammunition to portray the CPC in the most negative light.
Some of the ads – 10%ers, brochures, what have you – are being called “truth ads.” Some qualify for that description, others not so much.
Even the “Just Visiting” ads could be construed as anti-intellectual and anti-American.
Is that the image of itself the CPC wants to present?
Already there are some in the MSM, as well as some opposition bloggers, hinting that a new site – Republicans for ignatieff – is just more mischievous Conservative machination. Even if untrue, once the impression has been planted that the Conservatives may be behind it, it will be difficult to dispel that notion.
Whether cleverly and artfully done, whether the message is truth-based or not, the ads will be “seen” by the general public through the prism of the MSM.
And we know that many in the MSM see the CPC in a negative light.
Is that what the CPC wants?
As a small c-conservative, that is not what I want.
I want my party to tell Canadians what it has accomplished despite its minority position.
I want my party to tell Canadians what else it hopes to do for the country.
I want my party to deal with the present and look to the future, not constantly refer to past Liberal misdeeds.
And I most certainly don’t want my party to imitate the kind of dirty tactics used by other parties at different times portraying the conservative movement as peopled by “knuckle draggers.”
I still think we’re better than that.
Our 10 seats in Quebec will not a majority make for libs. When Quebec is told that Iggy wants to ban the manufacture and export of asbestos, was against the coalition (after being for it)
and sees the video of him saying Quebec is a place where they speak funny, will they rush to vote for him.
No one’s listening Gabby.
If political junkies like those who post here can’t accept that negative ads based on fact are part and parcel of politics then, maybe politics is not the hobby/interest for them.
I agree completely with Flanagan’s G&M piece today.
Perhaps the CPC hasn’t learned the ropes of effective negative ads yet? But then, maybe they have and that’s not your cup of tea.
It is what it is though and at the end of the day we can always vote for a party that doesn’t do that? Know any?
Yes, please God a Conservative Gov’t.
I think Lori and Gabby have some very valid points……HELLOOOOOO Conservative Communications – are you listening???
LMAO someone at Steve V’s Far And Wide actually compared Iggy’s repudiation of the Coalition document that he suported and signed to that of erroneously being held up by an old cell phone or cable contract -
==========================================
Michael Harkov, all of us have signed documents in the past, and this one for Ignatieff, like many others is in the past.
Do you get harassed over cable contracts that you signed years ago? Do you find that people hold up your contract with your old mobile phone carrier and say that you are ineligible because your signature is on an old document? No they don’t. You’re argument is stale and unoriginal (as usual).
==========================================
Unreal, LMAO.
CJ @39 – Thanks. I’ve got a lot of catching up to do.
Michael @46 – I think that falls under the category of ‘Liberal Entitlement’.
Regardless of what the polls say, the Bloc will elect more members in Quebec than the NDP do across Canada. If the coalition seems like a sure thing, the Bloc will get more seats to be the balance of power, get more cabinet seats, and have more input than the NDP. What Bloc MP would be in charge of provincial affairs.
Maybe we will see a lib/conservative coalition, sort of what we have now. Layton lost his chance last election, by going after PMSH instead of the liberals.
I don’t think anyone is telling the truth when polled. I sure don’t. And, how many of those polled actually get out to vote.
I will now await the usual ad hominem assaults on me, accusations of being a troll, and so on that follow any attempt to criticize anything our party does, since clearly it’s perfect, our leaders make no errors, and our strategists can predict the future with 100% certainty.
Hey, join the club!
The CPC would have a majority now (and could still), if it behaved…I don’t know….like a CONSERVATIVE PARTY!!!!!
Former PM Paul Martin and the Liberals were to get the largest majority in Canadian history according to the polls before the election writ was dropped.
He was pretty highly regarded, and polled well, before:
1. JC dropped sponsorship onto him.
2. He became the Lib leader, and panicked into pandering to the lefty Lib base.
3. He picked up Stronach for a dime.
The latter was the moment he lost my vote. Simple, eh?
He threw away fiscal prudence, and his integrity, in fear of not fulfilling his destiny. Kind of like what we are seeing now.
As it ever does, Joanne, lol.
Michael @46.
farandwide – a great place for a good laugh.
The brilliant Steve V is still going on with the “Ignatieff could have been Prime Minister” story.
The man’s glasses are clearly rose-coloured. Brings to ming that Monty Python’s knight who described a lost limb as a flesh wound.
Frmgrl @20 – Just getting around to listening to that clip now. Totally fascinating!
And it gives a whole different perspective to the original poll.
Wow. At the end of the interview, the fellow from Harris-Decima says most people feel this present government is doing an ‘o.k. if not fantastic’ job!
How does that jive with the polling results?
Richco @ 43
Co-sign…
A lot of money has been spent on focus groups that will prove that the public does not believe you when you toot your own horn when you are in government.
It just is what is it is. There is a reason why Mr Flanagan used this in his intro
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/opinions/have-the-liberals-gone-soft-why-are-they-upset-over-attack-ads/article1214605/
“See that your whole campaign is full of show, glorious and colourful; and see that your competitors are smeared with an evil reputation for crime, vice, or bribery.
- Quintus Tullius Cicero, 63 BC”
Frankly it is mind boggling how true this is to this day, when it comes to politics.
But anyone who has read “Harpers Team” will understand this…
Joanne, told ya that interview was gonna be interesting.
Richco at #43: “No one’s listening Gabby.”
Reminds me of this:
“If a tree falls in a forest and no one is around to hear it, does it make a sound?”
So, even if nobody’s listening, I’ll still register my sounds
The O’Mess.
The religion of socialism marches on its stomach*.
Iggy’s religion is naught but socialism, aka the stomach.
…-
“In West Wing: Grueling Schedules, Bleary Eyes
The White House mess — the military-inspired term for the West Wing cafeteria — opens at 7 a.m. each day. And each day, there is a long line of hungry staffers who have already been at the office for well over an hour.
By 8 p.m., as the doors to the mess are about to close, the orders flow again as bleary-eyed staffers grab dinner before heading back to their offices for another conference call or meeting.
“I think the mess hates all of us,” said a frequent customer who is a senior adviser to President Obama.
In a city where work can border on obsession, the Obama staffers stand out. They are not quite the walking dead, but their eyes are frequently ringed with the bags that accompany exhaustion.
“This is a place, because of the stress, the schedule and the sheer hours, that just chews people up and spits them out,” said press secretary Robert Gibbs, whose alarm clock is set to 4:30 a.m., though he ignores the early ring more often these days.
All West Wings face fatigue at some point, but the Obama team has had a particularly frenetic start, the result of inheriting the worse economic crisis since the Great Depression and the team’s own seemingly chaotic drive to push an agenda that includes the creation of a new health insurance system, auto bailouts, Middle East peace, nuclear nonproliferation, two wars and education reform.”
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2009/07/12/AR2009071202081_pf.html
…-
*GUSTAVE LE BON and the Crowd
“Le Bon’s study has not been surpassed to this day [1957] , I believe. …. Socialism is in fact nothing but the religion of the Stomach.” …
http://www.fulltable.com/crowd/07.htm
Gabby @ 58 – I’m listening too.
And I’m really torn as to what is the best strategy, but after listening to that Adler clip that CJ mentioned at #39, I’m feeling much better. I think the PM has things under control.
Gabby in QC @ # 58..
Gabby there is people listening to your POV(myself). The real question is, not to going full out neg or positive, but the balance of the former and the latter..
Which is why I really enjoy BLY when these type of arguments come up. B/C we are all right in some way, it is just how we balance these views…IMHO
To those questioning the whole philosophy around negative ads, their effectiveness, and so on. Some of your analysis might be influenced by msm spin, I don’t know. But whatever, I just want to say this:
In the Alberta Provincial PC leadership debates of a couple years ago, Ted Morton said this: “We should listen to our Conservative FRIENDS, not our Liberal ENEMIES”
Dr. Flanagan has a long, good relationship with Harper. He is obviously a smart guy when it comes to politics. And he is obviously a Conservative friend. We should listen to him.
Very good point, Calgary Junkie. We should not be taking advice from our enemies. The reason they’re screeching so much about the truth ads is because they’re working.
Richco @ #43 & JDot @ #56.
JDot, I went to the URL you posted. Wow, that piece by Tom Flanagan is brilliant!! Using a football anology as he did, I’d say the best defense is a good offense!!
Sitting back and letting the opposition pummel you is not what I’d call an effective strategy. As I’ve said before, the Bloc just loves that attitude of “not going there.” And now the Liberals are overjoyed that some Conservatives are saying “let’s not go there.”
If we’re going to be afraid to open our mouths, then where is the democracy? I believe Voltaire had it right, although I think someone else made that famous remark in relation to Voltaire’s thoughts:
“I disapprove of what you say, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.”
http://www.quotationspage.com/quote/331.html
Tom Flanagan:
“In modern Canadian politics, the Liberals have been the masters of negative campaigning. In 1988, they ran ads almost accusing Brian Mulroney of treason, of selling out Canada to the United States through the free-trade agreement. In 1991, Sheila Copps compared Preston Manning to David Duke, the former Louisiana Ku Klux Klan leader. In 2000, Warren Kinsella went on television to ridicule Stockwell Day’s alleged (never demonstrated) belief in Young Earth creationism.
In 2004, the Liberals eked out a minority victory with wave after wave of negative ads about Stephen Harper’s supposed “secret agenda”.
IMO, as stated previously, the Liberals own the “real” attack ads. The Conservative ads primarily speak to the truth. That’s why the Liberals, etc. are flustered by these ads, they have no valid comeback other than, in desperation, to call them attack ads.
I hope we’re not falling into the trap of parroting the Liberal objections to our “TRUTH ADS.” People have the right to know “EVERYTHING.”
More bad news for the Liberals, even those skewed polls and for the most part biased media will not be enough;
Canadian companies are beginning to see their orders increase, suggesting the recession is forming a bottom and increasing the odds that a modest recovery could begin as soon as the current quarter.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/report-on-business/businesses-see-higher-sales-more-hiring/article1216953/
The truth ads work, because they use Iggy’s own words.
frmgrl @ #20.
I listened to that interview you posted:
http://www.am770chqr.com/Station/AudioVault.aspx
The end result of this poll seems to imply that people ought to vote for their second choice in an election in order to obtain the majority government they want.
Assuming that the Conservatives are on one side and the coalition on the other, it takes no genius to realize that the Liberals would be victorious.
This appears to be an attempt to steer Canadians down the garden path in the direction the anti-Conservative crowd want them to go. Reading between the lines, the pollster seems to be leaning that way.
The opposition parties attempted the coalition. Now, it looks like the attempt is to form a coalition vote among voters against the Conservatives. The idea is that the NDP, Bloc and Green voters will vote their second choice on the ballot to ensure a Liberal government.
In such a scenario, you would expect the media to nurse this view along. Knowing the desperation out there, nothing is impossible!! Hopefully, Canadians will be alert to any manipulation that might occur.
I’ve been thinking about why Flanagan was making fun of the Libs, calling them whiners and such. It just hit me … I think he is goading them into spending some of their hoarded up cash in running ads of their own.
This would play into Flanagan’s other thesis– that we are in a war of attrition with the Libs. In the best of future worlds, the LPC goes bankrupt, and we buy the rights to the “Liberal” brand name that the bankruptcy judge auctions off ! The Liberal name is by far their biggest selling point. Let them try running as the “Green Democratic Coalition” or some such abomination.
The more depleted the Libs war chest, the more compromised Iggy is in making big decisions around election timing. Speculation around his backtracking on EI-360, was that almost all Liberal MPs were still waiting for rebates from Elections Canada. So lack of money made Iggy look foolish.
Dion was in the same compromising position, up to when Harper called the election in Sept.
Remember how Dion didn’t have a plane for the first week ? It’s probably because he didn’t have the CASH, which airlines want up front, to hold a plane.
[...] Joanne has a thread on this topic as well that is worth reading. Posted in canada. Tags: Harris Decima, majority government, Voter apathy. Leave a Comment » [...]
Some believe positive ads are ineffective.
Well, it just so happens I saw a PSA announcement on TV about Canada’s Economic Action Plan showing the benefits of undertaking needed renovations with the help of government credits.
Watch it here: http://www.actionplan.gc.ca/eng/index.asp
It is informative in a mildly humourous way.
That kind of ad is money well-spent, IMO.
As long as the ads are informative with only the true facts put out as information the public should know about a person who aspires to lead our country as PM. If the truth happens to be negative for the aspirant’s chances of winning that’s how the game of politics goes.
The Conservatives can put out what they’ve accomplished and what they intend to accomplish as well, that’s the other side of the game.
We’ve all had about enough of the Liberal’s game of Gotcha which they’re playing full out instead of offering any constructive alternatives as opposition. If that’s all they’re capable of they really aren’t ready to govern. We don’t want a PM flying by the seat of his pants.
Iggy’s Liberal Party is a room in the socialist shelter.
The socialist shelter provides food for the socialist do-gooders.
Socialism is a religion of the stomach.
…-
“Homeless get $10 Tims vouchers
Pools are shut, 52,000 children have had their swimming lessons and summer camps cancelled, and basketball courts have become temporary dumps. But at least one group is happy and well looked-after: the city’s homeless.
“We love it now,” said Chris Dunkan, 25, who is staying at Seaton House, a shelter for 600 men on George Street in downtown Toronto. “They don’t cook right now so they give us out food vouchers. Everything else is basically the same. We get clean towels and sheets. The laundry gets done.”
With the city’s 57 daycare centres locked and restaurant inspections, for example, suspended during a strike by unionized staff, the City of Toronto has redeployed dozens of managers from Public Health and Children’s Services to work in the nine homeless shelters that the city owns. But not, in most cases, to cook.”
http://www.nationalpost.com/todays-paper/story.html?id=1787693
**GUSTAVE LE BON and the Crowd
“Le Bon’s study has not been surpassed to this day [1957] , I believe. …. Socialism is in fact nothing but the religion of the Stomach.” …
http://www.fulltable.com/crowd/07.htm
Still say Sir Winston Churchill’s definition of Socialism says it best:
“Socialism is a philosophy of failure, the creed of ignorance, and the gospel of envy,it’s inherent virtue is the equal sharing of misery”.
Socialism must be getting pretty tough to stomach in Millerville.
Surprise today – Jim Travers at Toronto Star deserves your KUDOS today.
The honeymoon’s over for “the waffle”
For the record: Liberals shocked? Liberals in denial?
Canadian MSM uses the word “Liberal” in a blaring headline*.
MSM prints/publishes the sordid details including the words, “Senator Art Eggleton’s”.
That’s Liberal Senator Art Eggleton.
Repeat: That’s Liberal Senator Art Eggleton.
That’s the Liberal Party of Bob Rae, the Liberal leader. Oops, it’s the Liberal Party of Michael Ignatieff, Liberal leader of the Liberal Party of Canada.
(Repetition is good for Liberals.)
…-
*”Liberal staffer Meinzer facing more charges
New sexual assault allegations emerge against former Eggleton chief of staff”
“In an act that reverberated throughout political circles in Ottawa, police raided Meinzer’s Grove Avenue home in Old Ottawa South late last August. They were seen removing a sexually themed woman’s costume, several neckties and a camera in a clear garbage bag.”
http://www.ottawacitizen.com/news/Liberal+staffer+Meinzer+facing+more+charges/1788193/story.html
Assuming that the Conservatives are on one side and the coalition on the other, it takes no genius to realize that the Liberals would be victorious.
This appears to be an attempt to steer Canadians down the garden path in the direction the anti-Conservative crowd want them to go. Reading between the lines, the pollster seems to be leaning that way.
Ed @ #67 – I hadn’t thought of it that way. Interesting.
Liberal ethics*?
Here* is Liberal ethics.
Where is Iggy’s thumb?
Leaker Liberals leaking ethics*.
…-
*”Liberals broke embargo on PBO’s five-year forecast”
“Liberal Leader Michael Ignatieff’s office leaked the Parliamentary Budget Officer’s sweeping five-year economic forecast to the media last week, even though Liberal MP John McCallum asked for the two-day embargo and while the PBO has been publicly told not to release reports without Parliamentary approval or it won’t get its office budget increase.
Parliamentary Budget Officer Kevin Page’s controversial forecast predicts $156-billion in cumulative budgetary deficits over the next five years and higher than predicted job losses. The PBO’s report was released to House Finance Committee members last Monday and was supposed to be released to other Parliamentarians and the general public 48 hours later, on Wednesday.
But on Monday afternoon the Office of the Leader of the Opposition issued a release on the report, with remarks by Mr. McCallum (Markham-Unionville, Ont.).
The Toronto Star and other media reported on the contents of Mr. Page’s report on Monday and Tuesday, and although the OLO would not confirm it sent the documents to reporters last Monday, when The Hill Times asked the OLO for the report, it sent one.
Conservative MP Ted Menzies (Macleod, Alta.), the Parliamentary Secretary to the Finance Minister Jim Flaherty (Whitby-Oshawa, Ont.), said he finds it to be a breach of his Parliamentary privilege and if other committee members share his view it should be dealt with at the committee.”
http://www.thehilltimes.ca/html/index.php?display=story&full_path=2009/july/13/liberals_broke_embargo/&c=2
maz2, great catches coming from you!! Way to go!! Quite often you get me laughing out loud at how you put things. Also, often I take the walk up the hill to comprehend your words of wisdom unlike Iggy who always wants the PM to come down from the hill. Probably because he is incapable of understanding the PM’s words of wisdom?? It’s so difficult not taking shots at the Liberals.
How many remember when the conservatives got their first minority. Remember all the stories about all those first time MPs that would form the cabinet and make decisions. Scary stuff. So, think of this-if the liberals got a majority it would mean at least 78 first time MPs who have no experience and would have to learn on the job. A lot of them would get cabinet positions due to province they were elected in. Add that to a very inexperienced liberal leader who would be PM. Would the media stress that fact, like they did with PMSH.
And think back to the antics of the opposition liberals and their fake outrage and rants. Do you want Holland and Jennings free to take opposition files thru the streets again. Do you want them making decisions affecting your life and wallet. How about national daycare (probably forgotten again) a raise in the gst, kyoto, higher taxes and who knows what else.
And why do they say the decision of majority lies in Que. The most the liberals can gain there is 11 seats, unless the bloc crashes and burns. I doubt that would happen. And will the voters in the other provinces be happy with a lib majority made up of two provinces. I doubt it. Next polls should show loss of support for the Greens, when AB is polled. Where will those votes go.
[...] Canadians are ready for a majority government, but that option seems unlikely until either the Bloc loses a grip on Quebec or two federal parties [...]