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Archive of entries posted on 2nd June 2009

Did TD make a mistake?

Posted by Joanne on 2 June 2009, 8:13 pm

Paulsstuff has a post up in response to the article written by Paul Vieira of the Financial Post (TD warns that Ottawa’s forecasts are way off).

Paul’s post is titled, “What happens when TD economists have their facts wrong?”

Now I don’t pretend to even have a clue what Paul is talking about here. My eyes glaze over if too many numbers appear together at the same time. However, it would sure be interesting to hear from TD economists Don Drummond and Derek Burleton on this one. They have been all over the media today pushing their gloomy outlook.

In any case, the comments at the FP site are worth checking out:

JETSOLVER, Tuesday, Jun 2, 2009

This is the same TD that is providing the game plan and financing for the Liberal party of Ontario, and with reasonable extrapolation, the LPC?

RogersJi, Tuesday, Jun 2, 2009

The civil servant that put together the National Energy Plan works for the TD Bank, at a high wage. These are projections, best guesses. Both will be wrong, with the real question being who will be closer in the end. The federal Finance Department over the last 15 years has always under estimated but may be overly pollyannish to encourage private sector spending.

Any brilliant economists out there?

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Update: H/T to Lyle for this one – TD’s power of persuasion (Globe):

…The clout is baked into the bank’s corporate DNA, most notably in the formidable triumvirate of Mr. Clark, Mr. Drummond and Frank McKenna, three senior executives who were shaped by years of high-level government service. They remain among the most politically connected operators in Corporate Canada – particularly with the Liberal Party...

And this isn’t good for the Ontario Liberals – Ontario’s debt outlook ‘negative’ (Globe) Oops!

Upperdate: Government ‘incompetence’ might force election: Ignatieff – Canada.com:

…They’ve got no plan. Toronto Dominion Bank just announced that the deficit over five years will be $168 billion. That’s the biggest number anybody has ever heard of. The public finances of this country are not under control…

Wow. We sure didn’t see that one coming.

And check out Derek Burleton on BNN’s SqueezePlay. Amanda Lang’s great at interviewing Burleton, and gets him to admit that the situation would still be manageable.

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Wednesday Update:

TD traders probed in market-rumour crackdown – Globe:

…Two sources said the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA), the main brokerage regulator in the U.S., is looking into the matter and the bank has suspended four employees. Sources said that three of the employees work on the New York sales and trading team at TD Securities Inc. The fourth is in the Canadian research department.

The employees were sent home about nine weeks ago, after a TD client contacted the bank’s compliance department about an e-mail it had received regarding a rumour involving a company in the oil patch, according to people familiar with the matter…

Filed under Banks, Canadian economy.

53 Comments

Is Iggy underperforming in the polls?

Posted by Joanne on 2 June 2009, 9:23 am

Michael Ignatieff and his Liberal friends must be in shock.

In his yet-to-be-written autobiography, he lived outside Canada for 34 years, was lured back with visions of 24 Sussex dancing in his head and then settled in to wait for the inevitable wails of “Throw the bums out!!!” Then he ascended the throne and ruled forevermore - until he got bored and moved on.

Iggy didn’t have to lift a finger. The crown was his to claim. It was just a matter of time and entitlement.

But that dream seems to be fading, as Tim Powers explains:

…Ignatieff cheerleaders need to start asking the same tough questions that have been posed about the Prime Minister. Specifically, why can’t their man move the polls? Given the hype and the circumstances why has the Liberal Party not opened up a commanding lead in samples? Yes, they are doing well in Quebec but nationally they still haven’t reached Dion honeymoon like numbers and Dion didn’t even have the benefit of a global economic recession…

Even stacking the polling samples doesn’t always seem to produce the desired results (Good job, Wilson!)

And CBC can torque the headlines all they like, but the Tim Hortons crowd will still see through it.

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Also please check out Ezra Levant – I think it’s called “projection” (re: media bias).

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Canadians optimistic about financial future – David Akin, The Vancouver Sun

Canadians Rebound from Economic Recession Funk - Ipsos Reid

‘Glimmers of hope’ in consumer confidence – Globe Report on Business

Economy drop not the record expected – Canada.com (I think this is good news.)