Blue Like You

Conservative musings - formerly Joanne’s Journey
September 15th, 2008

The Leader of the Second Party will be…?

Is it possible that Jack Layton could become the next Leader of Her Majesty’s Loyal Opposition? A few months ago this might have seemed like a crazy idea, but now the possibility begins to loom large on the horizon.

Jack started the whole thing himself with his initial strategy to take over Stephen Harper’s job, but as discussed a few weeks ago we all know where he really hopes to be living after the election. The NDP leader wrote off  Stephane Dion right off the bat as a potential opponent requiring his attention and effort.

That plan seems to be paying off.  Polling numbers are showing that Jack Layton has passed Stephane Dion on the issue of leadership.

In fact, the Hill Times quotes a pollster as observing that the race between Layton and Dion for second place as being the most fascinating aspect of this election (H/T National Newswatch):

"…The most interesting issue in the campaign I don’t think is whether the Conservatives can lose, because I don’t think they can," said Conrad Winn of polling firm Compas. I think the most interesting issue is the battle between the NDP and the Liberals. It’s extremely rare for the NDP to have an opportunity to place second nationally. The Liberals gave the NDP that opportunity by choosing the least prepossessing of their four leadership candidates as leader. The NDP won’t have this chance in the next election…This is probably the only chance of two generations of a breakthrough for the NDP …"

Indeed, the Conservative strategists are beginning to grasp the reality that Jack Layton could be their real opponent and are planning to adjust the campaign accordingly.

Reports like this regarding the Liberal Green Shift plan will not help Stephane Dion’s efforts. (One wonders if the those who endorsed his plan are having second thoughts. Click on "Find Out What People are Saying". )

Of course, it’s still early days in this election, but the thought of having the NDP as the Official Opposition is a rather startling one to comprehend. If it actually occurs, then the Liberal Party will really need to do a thorough house-cleaning from the top down.

Moving out of Stornoway will just be the beginning.

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Update: Please vote at the Poll Page - Which party will form the next Official Opposition in Canada?

Maybe I should put up another poll taking bets on how big that kitchen table will be that Jack moves into Stornoway?

Check out who’s featured today at Jack’s Newswatch , Daily Blogger! Thanks, Jack.

Afternoon Update: Poll suggests Conservative lead softening - CBC. The left can breathe easy again!

Tuesday Update: Canada’s Liberals headed for third place finish:poll.

35 Responses to “The Leader of the Second Party will be…?”

  1. You know the liberals are in trouble when Cherniak goes on the attack against the Dippers.He compares Ben Layton to a used car salesman and readily assumes that a dipper vote swing to the liberals could mean a 10% gain [and success for Mr. Bean]….I don’t think so personally,I think that is wishful thinking and if anything the Green Party will pick up votes and split the left.You just gotta know that there is havoc in lefty lalaland when Duceppe is urging nationalist and federalist voters to park their votes with the Bloc to defeat those scary conservatives

  2. The ideal situation for the Conservatives is to have as their main opposition a weak ‘adaptable” Liberal Party. They don’t want the situation that has evolved in the UK where the Liberals have been relegated to a poor third. The NDP cooperate in achieving this objective by attacking the Conservatives when the Liberals are weak and only going after the Liberals when they are strong. The danger in this case is that the Liberals are so vulnerable that there is a possibility that the NDP could actually take second if they switched to attacking the Liberals in the last two or three weeks of the campaign. Since the Liberals appear to have no positive momentum, now is a good time to carry out a preemptive strike on Jack to prevent him from gaining enough momentum to serious;y challenge the Liberals with a switch in tactics. If Harper is playing chess and Dion checkers, Layton is playing tic-tac-toe.

  3. [...] Blue Like You | The Leader of the Second Party will be…? [...]

  4. Canadians deserve and democracy requires a competent loyal opposition, and the Liberals aren’t it.

    I’m not sure the NDP are it either, but they probably won’t be worse.

  5. West Coast Teddi Says:
    September 15th, 2008 at 10:06 am

    If the CPC win a majority, it won’t matter who the Official opposition are. If the Liberals come in third or a very weak second, Dion will be done and the “party” will fracture into leadership camps (look for a floor crossing bonanza). Any showing at or above Taliban Jacks current standing solidifies his hold on the Flipper Dippers, he would be a pain in the ass as Opposition Leader but nothing that the PM couldn’t handle. I think Harper would actually relish that!!

    Right wing Libs would move away from Dion and lefties would go to TJack. Look for a unite the Left

  6. The ideal situation for the Conservatives is to have as their main opposition a weak ‘adaptable” Liberal Party…

    Swift, you are probably right that having a weak Liberal Party as the official opposition would be the best case scenario for the CPC, but would it be the best thing for Canada as a whole? I’m not so sure.

  7. Excellent announcement just now from PMSH,on self-employed small business owners being allowed to contribute(voluntarily) and collect EI.this is huge to so many ‘common’ folk,and rather than the over the top,grandiose,promises made by the Libs/Dippers.As the sister of a self-employed woman,that had to take unpaid time off to battle cancer (successfully) this was one of her biggest worries while she fought to beat this thing,and I know that this alone will be huge for a lot of women.

  8. Sammy, I’m just watching that presser now.

    This is very good news indeed.

  9. Check out this just up at National Newswatch. Exactly the sort of comment you expect from a strong leader - NOT.

    LOL.

  10. “”’would it be best thing for Canada as a whole?”
    A short answer is yes. Dion obviously will be gone, and the Liberals will have a new leader. Radical environmentalists will suffer a setback without going through the pain that is starting to be felt in Europe. Either Rea or Iggy will likely win the leadership. Quite different scenarios will likely play out depending on which one it is and I’m about to go out to do as little campaigning, so I am not oing to go into details about how each would benefit the CPC and Canada as a whole.

    The official opening of our campaign office is this evening with Jim Flaherty and he is meeting with the local movers and shakers also. We are apparently going to be a target riding which is great news for us locally. But it is also good news nationally, as we would not likely be one if the national campaign was worried about many of the seats that were picked up in the last election.

  11. Ha-ha! Jad, that’s too funny!

    Swift, you always have a most interesting take on things. I’m going to have to think about this for a while.

    Please keep us posted on how things go in your riding. I know you’ll be a very valuable asset to your candidate, as you were in the last election. Best of luck.

  12. This is giving libloggers fits if this is any indication.

    http://jasoncherniak.blogspot.com/2008/09/jack-layton-prefers-conservatives.html

    Expect a spike in tinfoil prices at the grocery store this week.

  13. This is giving libloggers fits if this is any indication:

    http://jasoncherniak.blogspot.com/2008/09/jack-layton-prefers-conservatives.html

    Expect a spike in tinfoil prices at grocery stores this week.

  14. Jad:

    That Winnipeg Sun article is a hoot, considering that the Liberals and Greens are in obvious collusion.

    If Dion and May fail to criticize each other during the leadership debate then I cry “foul”.

  15. Dion and May won’t debate each other; they’ll be swapping recipes and passing notes.

    I read somewhere yesterday that May has now declared herself Pro-Choice. Anything to get votes! And she’s studying to be an Anglican Minister?

  16. Yep, Layton as opposition was raised on this blog months ago..if you remember?

    If memory serves me correctly, we also advised the Dion camp to watch their backs because this could be a possibility. We even blogged back and forth about how Dion’s team’s strategy should be to go after Layton, not Harper.

    See? The Liberals should have paid attention to us here.

    Oh and by the way, I just had a phone call from the Ontario PC party looking for donations. Could someone get through to that braintrust and tell them there’s a federal campaign on!!! This is the second request in the last three weeks. One via emailed newsletter, one today by phone.

    What gives?

  17. Remember when the Bloc was the Official Opposition while we righties got our act together?

    I think it would be good for Canada to have Jack in the co-pilot seat, with a Harper majority.
    A Harper minority will place Libs in opposition.

    Canadians need to see the ‘left’ in action. Canadians need to see that Dipper’s ideology will soften when they actually have to represent a broader base of Canadidans, if they want to retain the position for more then one election cycle.

    I also do not think Rae nor Iggy will take the throne. After this election, they will want a guaranteed winner, like Premier McGuinty.
    Iggy is unproven, his experience amounts to being an MP in opposition for 3 years, campaigned for the leadership on a carbon tax, increase in GST and excise taxes (ooooops).
    ‘Rae days’, nuf said.

  18. First: I think JACK! as opposition leader would be fabulous for Harper. For once a properly defined opposition to (hopefully) nascent Conservatism could be juxtaposed to rampant socialism, represented by the NDP. I’m tired of socialism-quasi-conservative lite practiced by the Liberals and the confusion at the ballot box that results.

    As to the joy of EI for business owners: we’ve had that option all along, it was just impossible to collect. So, now we can? Thanks but no thanks.

    I operate my business to make a profit from business activity, not feeding off what others contribute to a collective fund. You are supposed to be “independant” at your business activity or it’s not a business.

    You want paid time off for cancer or such, get disability insurance and don’t deduct the premiums from your corporate income - it’s tax free that way. You can also get corporate sponsored Blue Cross or an equivalent. You can also purchase critical illness insurance and keep me out of the loop of paying for your “independant business” operations, while you are sick or pregnant. Next we’ll have to be enforced to pay into this joke of a scheme.

    Part of the blessings of being an independant business man/woman is the independance it is supposed to offer, from government interference into how we spend our profits, or conduct our business activities. These are Conservatives running for office? In name only!

  19. Conservative Majority; here we come!

    Osama Bin Layton will be leader of the Opposition, Puffin Iggy will lose his seat, Stephanie D-Yawn will be turfed as Lieberal leader replaced by Boob Rae?
    May put out to pasture.

  20. Canadians need to see the ‘left’ in action. Canadians need to see that Dipper’s ideology will soften when they actually have to represent a broader base of Canadidans, if they want to retain the position for more then one election cycle.

    Wilson, the other thing about it is that Jack would actually have to put his money where his mouth is.

    If we ended up with another Conservative minority, and the NDP were the Official Opposition, they wouldn’t have the luxury of voting against the Government right after an election if it meant the government would immediately fall. So they might end up being the ones who would have to sit on their hands!

  21. Hey Swift - I have great respect for Jim Flaherty how are things looking for him there?

    As someone with a kid at UOIT remind him to spend time there AND help those kids who are stuck in the middle of a fight between the City of Oshawa and the home developers re: student housing.

    Get Jim to canvass Dalhousie St. Lot of conservative students there.

  22. “Hey Swift - I have great respect for Jim Flaherty how are things looking for him there?”

    My sister and her husband are working on Flaherty’s campaign, and things are going very well. Jim is highly respected in his riding. There was a rally/meeting Sturday and it was very well attended.

    Internal polling mirrors what the national polls show, Conservative’s in the high 30’s, Lib’s dipping to the mid 20’s, and Dippers high teens. The strategy to pay little attention to Dion has paid off for the Dippers, and may also help Conservative’s split the left vote even further, as votes move away from Dion as he becomes more marginalized. The Dion/May pact is also making Dion look more inept as a leader, sending lefty votes to Layton.

  23. Thanks for that, Paul. Yes, I can’t see that Dion-May coaliton being any good at all for the Liberals.

  24. It would help if the campaigning went right to the issue of the economics. How each party’s going to pay the programs? Otherwise, it’s all conjecture even with regard to left splitting. Jack’s said he’d recall the subsidies to industries to cover the $8 billion for the auto sector over so many years. We need to hear the rest of the zany/unaffordable plan.

    Dion’s carbon tax shift has been debunked over and over.

    Harper’s just making readjustments/fine-tuning the last budget and platform. Will anything new be up for consideration?

  25. “Harper’s just making readjustments/fine-tuning the last budget and platform. Will anything new be up for consideration?”

  26. “Harper’s just making readjustments/fine-tuning the last budget and platform. Will anything new be up for consideration?”

    Expect Harper to announce some new and impressive platform/policy planks in a few weeks that should cement the deal. One thing I forgot to menton in the polling is those are decided voters. The Conservative base of decided voters is very strong, and swaying over even a small percentage of undecided voters could put us over the top for a majority, barring any major gaffes of course.

    The left-vote is softer between the Lib’s, Dippers, and Greens. This is the reason pollsters are giving for the fact Layton could end up as official opposition. Still a longshot, but if trends continue you never know.

  27. I’m leaving now to hear Harper’s address. But TOR STAR I think is reporting new Conservative initiatives, number one, maternity leave for self-employed, number two, EI benefits for self employed. That’s all I’ve picked up.

    From my reads, many NDP supporters aren’t pleased with Layton’s negotiations with Conservatives. Of course, like Obama, he’s offering the unworkable. Especially in terms of the markets meltdown today.

    We need business/industry/banking/real estate sector to join the leaders on the campaign speaking to “conditions now obviously on-the-ground.” We do need that.

  28. It couldn’t be that the media was manufacturing the majority just so they could bring us a “softening” now could it?

    Oh, check Kinsella’s site and the new ad the Liberals have put out. There’s something missing from the ad though….NO DION. Check it out

  29. MUST WATCH TV! LIBERAL GARTH TURNER EXPOSED FOR BEING A LIAR ON CPAC> Watch Primetime Politics tonite(replayed later on cpac).to get the whole background read AGWN top story. He and his top campaign mgr.Esther,flat out LIED to cpac,and the voters about a set-up interview.YUMMY stuff!

  30. I am beginning to read articles in the MSM attacking Layton in the very same way they attack Stephen Harper. At first I was surprised, but then I re-considered. While the media hatred of Stephen Harper is well known; the venom we read in the paper is driven more by fear. Fear for the liberals and for Dion. Stephen Harper has been attacked and slandered from day one because he is a serious threat to liberal power (more than that now obviously, but you get the idea). Jack Layton is now a very serious threat as well. He too is feeling the attacks of journalists. How long until May starts getting some vicious press?

  31. Bruce: I’m trying to show constructive criticism; not trying to shoot anybody down: but I think comparing Layton to Bin Laden is a wee bit over the line.

  32. May, I think you have a point there.

  33. MUST WATCH TV! LIBERAL GARTH TURNER EXPOSED FOR BEING A LIAR ON CPAC> Watch Primetime Politics tonite(replayed later on cpac).

    Dang! Sammy I missed the whole thing. Can you give us a review, please?

  34. Jo,if you get cpac,it will be replayed later tonite.I’m pretty sure you can access it on-line as well.I would bet dollars to doughnuts some brilliant Blue Blogger…like yourself,will have the clip up and running asap.
    Best part of all tho,and wait for it…CBC NATIONAL NEWS highlites this story,as well an OUTRAGED Turner interviewed by phone…he’s blaming ‘biased,dirty bloggers’.They interview Steve Janke (AGWN) for his uncovering Garth hypocrisy.Watch near end of Nat.News for the Ormiston Online segment.It’s a beauty!

  35. I saw that CBC clip, Sammy! I couldn’t believe it. This is so funny.

    More at The Shotgun, BTW.

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