It’s a strange turn of events when Conservative supporters start to find themselves questioning the latest polls results in such usually left-wing media as the CBC and the Star, that show the possibility of a Conservative majority.
But that is exactly the very ironic situation in which many of my readers and I find ourselves at the present time.
Of course, that would suggest that polling companies might skew their results to support the strategy of the MSM outlet that commissioned them, and we certainly don’t want to go there.
However, Liblogger Steve’s readers at Far and Wide are puzzling out the high CPC numbers in Ontario from the recent Environics poll as well. So it’s not just us.
My gut feeling is that media who commission polls are less likely to flaunt the results if it doesn’t support their bias. So the polling results may end up on page 3 rather than as the headlines if it will hurt their favourite party.
This may seem counter-intuitive if you’re pushing the fear-factor, but the theory has always been the the idea of a Conservative majority is supposed to be ’scary’. I recall a Liberal strategist on MDL a few days ago saying that this would be one of their memes going into this campaign – Do you really want a Conservative majority?
In any case, I humbly submit these offerings which should help provide a bit of balance in the ‘Majority’ speculation:
Dion, like Clark, not to be underestimated – Globe.
Ivison – Harper is not just being modest (Post).
And finally, the brilliant Chuckercanuk dispels all the rumours. And yes, Nik will have the truth.
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Update: Liblog strategy – How to avoid a full on Dion disaster (The Maple Three).
And a great discussion is going on at Sandy’s – Beware polls claiming Conservative majority!
* * * *
Saturday Update: The Stop-a-majority strategy is front and centre at National Newswatch. See this Globe article (of course).
Aside from the fact that Chuckercanuk has proven that the opposition parties have nothing to fear, can someone please tell me what would be so awful if it actually happened?
Perhaps something would actually get done in a timely fashion instead of all this bickering and grandstanding. The Ontario Liberal government has been running the province with two successive majorities and things are going great, right?
O.K. Maybe that was a bad example.
I totally agree Joanne. Just last week the Libs were ahead and now we have poll after poll showing the Tories with a wide margin. Something doesn’t make sense. Either the questions asked are different or more straight forward (like- who will you vote for) or the polls numbers are being fudged.
Remember when the Tories had that 43% poll that was never published? So how come these typically left leaning media are suddenly all commissioning polls and publishing numbers that would belie their usual direction.
I think this is step 1 in the media (and the Liberals) pushing the Scary Harper meme and the “what would he do with a majority” line.
Time will tell, but something seems very wrong about all this.
Except that this time Canadians have had ample time to see Harper in action, and can concretely see accomplishments.
Dion…..zip
If it’s one thing that the general public hates it’s when the media tries to pull a fast one.
That’s why the new Harper ads work so well. Even Kinsella admits that.
Compare those ads to the manic display of Dion yesterday, and who looks more like the scarey one?
Not Harper. The Liberals and their MSM scriptwriters can’t spin fast enough.
With his accomplishments the Liberals can no longer define Harper because he’s done so himself, AND, in the meantime has defined Dion too.
Nik Nanos dropped into JacksNewsWatch a week or so ago and was defending his “questions” – he has been accurate in the last 2 elections at least. He did express his displeasure with some of the blogger’s questions as to why he used certain types of questions – Sandy at Crux caught him out so to speak.
Only poll that counts is on election day so we need to be cautious in what we say so as not to “influence negatively” the outcome!!
I did a very accurate poll of 1 and yes I will vote CPC so as they say in the MSM biz … polling shows that “100% of WCT sample will be voting Conservative accurate to plus or minus 0% – 100% of the time!!!”
I did a very accurate poll of 1 and yes I will vote CPC so as they say in the MSM biz … polling shows that “100% of WCT sample will be voting Conservative accurate to plus or minus 0% – 100% of the time!!!”
lol! Thanks for that one, Teddi! I had a good chuckle there.
Maybe it’s the real deal…???
Ontarians may be coming to their senses.
Are they more worried about cuts to the Arts or:
http://www.torontosun.com/News/TorontoAndGTA/2008/09/05/6666616-sun.html
Why would anyone believe a word CBC says or a poll they commision. After the slamm reported on the National to Sarah Palin and not a peep of an apology so far.
The CBC is setting a trap, Julie Van Dusen is too happy about the poll!! Something is up and CBC is going to play very dirty.
After the slamm reported on the National to Sarah Palin and not a peep of an apology so far.
No apology. Only this ‘explanation’.
Joanne — There is another phenomenon as well. Scare the hell out of people. We saw this in either 1997 or 2000 when Chretien had an election after only three years. In Niagara, the Reform were doing very well and would likely have won all four ridings had the local daily not put front page headlines that screamed: Reform likely to win in Niagara — three days before voting day.
And, you can guess what happened. Everyone was scared and reform didn’t win any seats at all.
So, it may be the MSM’s strategy to say majority so that a number of people panic and vote Liberal. It’s a type of reverse psychology that seems to work in Ontario.
Hope I’m wrong!
I thought that polls showing a majority might be spin, but now I really I think the polls we are seeing now are close to what internal polling for the parties has shown for awhile. Whcih is the reason Liberal’s were so terrified of forcing an election.
[...] me suspicious. As Joanne at Blue Like You asks today, whose spinning what? Just a week ago we were talking about the Nanos poll that showed [...]
Hope I’m wrong!
Sandy, I fear you are only too right.
Here is what I posted awhile back here. Compare the numbers I quoted and compare to the past 4 polls done by the media in the last week.
“paulsstuff Says:
July 21st, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Once again, internal polling by ALL parties has Conservative’s in high 30’s, Lib’s high 20’s, Dippers mid-teens, and green single digits.
The G&M opinion piece was odd. After paragraph after paragraph repeating every negative about Dion/Clark, one final sentence saying that he shouldn’t be underestimated.
The Liberal Party and the MSM are becoming so predictable. Now Warren Kinsella is musing about Women running to vote Liberal to stop scary Stephen Harper majority.
“paulsstuff Says:
July 21st, 2008 at 1:55 pm
Once again, internal polling by ALL parties has Conservative’s in high 30’s, Lib’s high 20’s, Dippers mid-teens, and green single digits.
Interesting, Paul. That gives credence to Wilson’s ‘real deal’ theory.
But if that’s the case, why the earlier discrepancies with so many other polls?
Fay, I just read Kinsella’s blog.
Kind of a back-handed compliment.
“…That Monday Globe headline was widely regarded as BS by most politicos – the Globe does that headline in every campaign (albeit not this early) and it has the effect of scaring the bejesus out of female voters. But, last night CBC headlined an Environics saying the same thing, and Leger has them strong in Quebec. That’s momentum, and a lot of Liberals I know are suddenly looking very nervous. Whether Team Harper can hold onto it or not is another thing…”
Joanne, the discrepancies can be easily related to the areas the pollsters are calling or the framing of the question being asked. If the CBC or Star wants a poll to reflect higher numbers for the Liberals while still remaining within a margin of error consistent with other or pervious polls, they can call areas where traditional Liberal strenght is known to exist, thus influencing the positive result for a party, in the case of this example, the Liberals. While the polling firms would never admit to this, I have no doubt that this likely happens. I am in no way privy to internal polling from any of the parties, but I would think that Paulsstuff’s numbers are likely accurate. I expect that as the election campaign progresses, we will continue to see polls identifying that the Conservatives are close to majority territory, i.e. 40% of the popular vote (PV). This though is not necessarily the magic majority number with the 4 way split of the vote on the left. A high 30%(say 37-39%) number of the PV for the Conservatives could net them a majority government if the Quebec poll numbers are accurate and the Conservatives gain 5 or 6 seats in the 905 and the 519 areas as L. Ian Macdonald noted in his National Post article today.
“Interesting, Paul. That gives credence to Wilson’s ‘real deal’ theory.”
I’m a 905′er, and most people around here think Harper has done a good job and will vote for him. I work in Brampton in a plant that has in excess of 3000 workers, and most share the same sentiment with regards to Harper’s performance.
And I think a trickle down effect in Ontario is many are starting to blame McGuinty, and by extension, Liberal’s, for the economic mess it finds itself in.
The announcement of the re-opening of the Ford engine plant will help with voter intentions in the Windsor corridor, and there is supposed to be a similar announcment concerning the St. Catherine’s GM plant. The opposition ridiculed the $250 million funding for these projects during the budget process, and are now wearing egg on their face. And unlike Liberal empty promises, ($25 million for Toronto’s waterfront 1993,1997,200,2004,2006), these announcements have actually been budgeted for.
Harper has made great strides in dealing with Aboriginal’s, and the apology issued in the house was widely praised in that community.
Dion’s a flop in Quebec, OK, everywhere, but moreso there. Campbell’s carbon-tax has hurt the Green Shaft platform.
And expect to see some fairly impressive names announced as Conservative candidates ion the next few days. Kinsella alludes to a friend of his, who will be running against Barf Turner.
All in all, I think it is “the real deal”.
Glenn, thanks for mentioning the L. Ian MacDonald article. I glanced at it this morning, but checked it over more carefully after you pointed it out. Link here.
…expect that as the election campaign progresses, we will continue to see polls identifying that the Conservatives are close to majority territory, i.e. 40% of the popular vote (PV). This though is not necessarily the magic majority number with the 4 way split of the vote on the left…
Good point. We are talking about popular votes. Actual seat wins can look quite different.
Fascinating about polling where ‘traditional strength is known to exist.’ MacDonald seems to back up your theory here:
…Pollsters from ROC are susceptible to over-sampling the island of Montreal, a bastion of Liberal support. CROP, on the other hand, provides regional breakouts for the Rest of Quebec, a crucial battleground of 50 ridings, including the 418 area that includes Quebec City and the eastern part of the province…
I know that he feels CROP is the definitive poll regarding Quebec.
Joanne, thanks for your additional comments. It is great to have a forum where some intelligent discussion can take place.
Glenn, please be a frequent commenter. You’re most welcome here.
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All in all, I think it is “the real deal”.
Paul, that gives me a lot of hope. Real hope. Not the Obama-type, self-indulgent kind. And I know you have your ear to the ground in ways that many of us are unable to do…
I also think that it’s the real deal…The recent tied polls were not: They were designed to give the impression to the sheeps who don’t pay attention to politics that the Natural governing party of Canada was still strong and a viable choice for many.
I use to bang my head thinking how could it be that after more than 2 years of excellent Government under Harper, so many were still clinging to the Fibs.
There’s a reason why Dion and co. were so dead again’st an election now and that the MSM were recently repeating “Why an election when they are tied in the polls?…It’s a waste of tax dollars”, etc…
Now that an election is certain we have the real numbers and they are growing for our team.
With the Sarah Paulin phenomenon and the exposure of the Left wing media which is having a huge backlash right now in the states with subscription cancellations (US and others) and Oprah under fire for not wanting Palin on her show, the Canadian media are better to thread carefully.
I think with the new love affair with Palin the Conservative will play well up here too…Stephen, start showing off your lovely wife Laureen which could relate with Sarah IMO.
Finally, the media is being exposed for what it is…I hope it continues.
Soon Judy Sgro and John McCallum will be hiding in bushes, waiting to ambush our PM with abortion questions. As soon as the writ is dropped.
“Paul, that gives me a lot of hope. Real hope. Not the Obama-type, self-indulgent kind. And I know you have your ear to the ground in ways that many of us are unable to do…”
I mentioned awhile back how fantastic the campaign ads were going to be, and the reaction seems to verify that. Even Kinsella has praised them. As we move further into the campaign there will be new ads released that I think will go over exceptionally well. Some even have a bit of humor in them, which I think is a fantastic idea. The only commercials people remember have something to pic their interest.
My biggest hope is my MP, Mark Holland, is turfed out on eletion day. Polls in this riding are close between Liberal’s and Conservative’s.
And the most telling polls will be the ones following the debates. I am sure Stephane Dion is a nice enough guy, and you don’t get to be where he is without having some smarts. But come the debates I fully expect all party leaders to be far and away better in the impression they will give voters.
Soon Judy Sgro and John McCallum will be hiding in bushes, waiting to ambush our PM with abortion questions.
Then they better ask Lizzie May too. She wants her equal time after all.
Wow. Joe Comartin just said that Rob Nicholson lied on MDL. This could get interesting.
Professor Ivan Pavlov on; conditioning of a dog.
http://www.muskingum.edu/~psych/psycweb/history/pavlov.htm
It seems that persistent Liberal bias and consistent fudging of public opinion polls can be played in many different ways. I do not want to sound like I am boasting here but it seems to me that just a few days ago we had a discussion on this very subject and during that discussion I observed that Conservatives always seem to rise in the polls as soon as election is called. I attributed this phenomenon to adjustment for reality of anticipated result of upcoming election in desperate attempt to salvage reputation of polling industry.
http://www.bluelikeyou.com/2008/09/02/mcguinty-to-get-involved-in-federal-election/
In a meantime my prediction were confirmed by the latest polls. Am I a prophet of some sort?? Are crooks consistently cooking the polls going to get away one more time with their blatant lies?? Are we going to call this “sudden and unexpected upswing” of Conservative Party of Canada popularity with Canadian public “Sara Palin” phenomenon??? How long are we going to allow this tail (crooked pollsters) to wag this dog (mostly conservative majority of Canadian population)???
And now this from the latest Ipsos poll: “Stephen Harper’s Conservatives have a long way to go to win a majority in the coming election, according to an extensive new poll that shows the Tories’ support is concentrated in rural regions of Western Canada with few seats.”
Do any of these polling guys (except for CROP)have the slightest idea what they are talking about ? If the result is being skewed because most of the support is in the “rural regions of W. Canada”, then the sample should be adjusted to take that into account so that you get a true National number, otherwise the poll is worthless.
Well, Jad. Thanks for that. Clearly the Liberals have nothing to worry about.
I would suggest that they all just take a deep breath and maybe start campaigning the day before the election.
A Leger poll came out for Quebec today mirroring the CROP poll. No mention of the Liberal vote concentrated in Toronto.
LaPierre on Duffy today saying Liberal’s are in big doo-doo in Quebec. Mentioned one riding with only $3000 to fight the election, Garneau in a tight race, Trudeau might not get elected, etc.
Frankly, the media have tried to sink Harper for months..and all he’s done is risen in the polls. At the end of the day, I think it really doesn’t matter what they say. Harper has avoided them for this long, he’ll do it again during an election.
According to [deleted] public opinion poll “expert” Darrell Bricker; Conservatives are not ‘flirting with majority’
http://www.canada.com/topics/news/national/story.html?id=0107641e-7586-4515-b31a-5b0e535d3384
What else could we expect???
Karol, I had to edit that last comment of yours. Please keep things as civil and relevant as possible. Thanks.
Otherwise I’ll have to put you on my ‘check before publishing’ list, and I’d hate to have to do that.
BTW, thanks for that link. It makes my case that the Liberals have no worries – another Harper minority at best.
In fact, the Liberals probably don’t even need to go out on the hustings.
[...] we weren’t just being paranoid after [...]
Just did another Angus Reid on line poll yesterday. Paid lots of attention to the questions. When asked what federal party I would vote for I marked conservative, when asked what local candidate I would vote for I marked conservative. Yes I do intend to vote.
When questions ask, will you vote for a conservative, liberal etc in your riding I say yes.
But, how many people say NO when asked, will you vote for -leaders name, and other- many could mark Other, as they are not in said leaders riding.
It is the question, and how they ask it.
Blast from not so distant past; Darrell Bricker’s take on leadership abilities of Harper,Dion,and Layton.
Boy, how wrong can someone be in his past predictions and still have te nerve to make public predictions on future????
Please read and make your own mind.
===Buoyant Grit poll numbers could banish spring election threat===
Darrell Bricker
For CanWest News Service
Saturday, December 09, 2006
Is the Dion bounce for real? The answer is “yes.” At least out of the gate. Why? Because just as Stephane Dion was the ideal compromise candidate for delegates at the Liberal leadership convention, this first week as Liberal leader, he’s the ideal compromise candidate for the pockets of voters in Ontario, Quebec, B.C. and Atlantic Canada that will decide the next election.
This week’s Ipsos-Reid poll for CanWest News and Global National illustrates this point. Dion’s victory has re-constituted a centre/left coalition that comprises the traditional Liberal core, plus disaffected New Democrats. This is the coalition that Jean Chretien rode to three majority victories in 1993, 1997 and 2000 — and the demise of this coalition pushed a struggling Paul Martin into a minority government in 2004.
The immediate desire of the traditional Liberal coalition to embrace Dion puts proof to the point that Stephen Harper and the Tories weren’t so much elected back in January, as the Liberals were defeated. Without a strong anti-Liberal issue like the sponsorship scandal at work, one wonders how successful the Tories will be in an election against a cleansed and re-energized Liberal party.
The major issue that Harper needs to confront in the run-up to the next election is that his party and leadership divide the electorate. Against a candidate who unites the Liberal coalition, this is a bad place to be.
How divided are Canadians on Harper? The percentage that has a positive impression of both Dion and Harper is roughly equal, but the group that has a negative impression of Harper is 17 points larger than the group that has a negative impression of Dion. Voters that have the most negative impression of Harper are urban dwellers, university grads and women. In fact, half of Canada’s female voters say they have a negative impression of Harper. That’s quite a head start to give to an opponent.
Importantly for Dion, Jack Layton’s leadership is also divisive. While Layton does much better with voters than his party, he still has personal negatives that are 10 points higher than Dion’s.
The big question about Dion has been about his ability to win seats in Quebec. This poll’s results are somewhat ambiguous on this point. While Dion’s leadership has pushed the Grits back to at least Chretien levels (30 per cent), this growth has come at the expense of neither the Tories nor the Bloc. It’s mostly been at the expense of the NDP and the Greens. One has to wonder how real the Liberal gains in Quebec are given that these two groups are among the least likely to cast a ballot in a federal election.
So, where does this leave Canadian politics, and what does it mean for election timing? First, it means that the Liberals under Dion are definitely back in the hunt, and that Paul Martin did the right thing when he resigned after the last election. Second, it means that, unless Dion and the Liberals see a major dip in support, a spring election is off. Why? Because, given their current prospects, the NDP and Bloc are unlikely to agree to bring the government down. And, the Tories will not want to trigger an election until their numbers improve — and that’s going to take some time.
Darrell Bricker is president and COO of Ipsos Reid Public Affairs.
Otherwise I’ll have to put you on my ‘check before publishing’ list, and I’d hate to have to do that
Am I on that list? If not, how to I got on it?
Enquiring minds want to know.
lol! Moebius, do you want to be on the list? Just say something that causes me to be concerned that I might be sued or hauled in front of a HRC for allowing comments that might offend visible minorities.
Of course, I also have certain 4-letter words targetted for ‘the list.’
[...] me suspicious. As Joanne at Blue Like You asks today, whose spinning what? Just a week ago we were talking about the Nanos poll that showed [...]
Like “poop”, “crap” or “lmfao”?
Damn!