The birthday gift that could keep on giving
Looks like I’m not the only one who saw yesterday’s Crop poll as a tremendous birthday gift for Stephen Harper . The Gazette’s L. Ian MacDonald was obviously also impressed with the results. (H/T to National Newswatch )
Of course we are always reminded that polls are merely a snapshot in time, and political fortunes can turn on a dime . (Hey, I might try writing poetry!)
However these Crop results indicate a worrisome trend for the Bloc :
…While Harper’s Conservatives are off two points from last month to 27 per cent, the Bloc has dropped two points to a virtual tie at 28 per cent, with the Liberals stable at 20 per cent, and the NDP growing three points to 17 per cent .
This is the first time in memory that the Bloc has dropped below 30 per cent. At 28 per cent, it is 14 points below its 42 per cent score in the 2006 election. Stated another way, one Bloc voter in three has moved away from it .
And when you look at the key francophone demographic, 85 per cent of the voting pool, the news is simply devastating for Stéphane Dion and the Liberals. The Bloc is at 33 per cent in this segment, the Conservatives at 28 per cent, the NDP at 18 per cent and the Liberals at 13 per cent. Yikes …
Yikes indeed.
If the Liberals ever get off their collective butts and actually vote against the government on a confidence motion, it could very well be the Bloc that blocks it to save their own skins - as well as their salaries and pensions.
Federalist sentiment in Quebec is on an upward trend and the LPC is clearly not the favourite in that race.
The only bright spot for the Liberals is that the Bloc may allow them to regain some of their tarnished dignity and once again act like the Official Opposition rather than merely the Party of Outraged Seat-Warmers .
And as MacDonald mentioned, continuing to be Prime Minister of Canada for the indefinite future isn’t such a bad deal for Stephen Harper .
Who’s going to challenge him?
May 1st, 2008 at 10:29 am
A majority is all I wish for. This year or next.
Happy Birthday dear Prime Minister. You’ve made me proud once again to be a Canadian (And to have been born like you, in 1959…You’re exactly 3 months younger)
May 1st, 2008 at 10:36 am
what good do any potential gains in quebec do if they’re offset by losses in atlantic canada and ontario?
May 1st, 2008 at 11:13 am
How many seats in Atlantic Canada, how many in Que. and who says they will lose in Ont.
And just maybe those in NFLD will like being a have province and relish the thought of getting back at Ont for being treated like poor cousins all these years. Dion will never be PM of Canada in the next decade.
May 1st, 2008 at 12:47 pm
if you combine losses in atlantic canada, say 6 seats, with losses in ontario, say 16, harper needs 22 seats in quebec to break even.
ontario polling numbers consistantly indicate a big drop in support for harper. the ongoing battle with flaherty continues to drive down CPC support. further, the libs are posed to pick up seats from both conservative and NDP ridings in the province.
nfld isn’t going to reward harper for his continual east coast bashing.
the libs will keep what they have in quebec and likely win back outremont. while bloc support has dipped, there’s no reason to expect the massive seat gain required to boost conservative fortunes.
i’d be surprised to see an election before the fall. that will be dion’s opportunity. it’s rather ridiculous to suggest that dion will be leader of the opposition for a decade. if he can’t deliver a govt, he’ll be replace long before that.
if harper wins the next election without delivering a majority, he’s finished.
May 1st, 2008 at 1:26 pm
if harper wins the next election without delivering a majority, he’s finished.
Are you drunk? What a completley absurd statement. After all the great things Harper and the Tories got done in THIS minority government, why in the hell would they get rid of him in the case of another minority.?
The one that should be worried about his job is Dion. If Harper, as you say, is finished after WINNING an election, what does that say about Dion for losing?
Go sleep it off Jeffie.
May 1st, 2008 at 1:29 pm
I think Jeff brewed his Koolaid a little too strong today.
May 1st, 2008 at 2:12 pm
I read macdonald’s piece and wondered he had read your post first.
Dion seem like he will back down yet again. Jeffie spins it that is an opportunity. it will infuriate the grits..
May 1st, 2008 at 2:15 pm
I read macdonald’s piece and wondered he had read your post first.
Yeah! I was wondering that too!!!
May 1st, 2008 at 6:07 pm
I just lost a nice long post when my internet connection went down with a detailed explanation of why the poll numbers should translate into thirty Tory seats. However if you include the likely swing that often occurs during an election in Quebec, the Conservative total would be over forty. Before the last campaign even the most optimistic Conservatives were only calling for a pickup of one seat with the possibility of two or three more if things went right. As for the detailed analysis to justify this, and why the Liberals and Bloc should be afraid, very afraid, you will have to do it yourself as I’m hungry.
May 1st, 2008 at 7:43 pm
I just lost a nice long post when my internet connection went down with a detailed explanation of why the poll numbers should translate into thirty Tory seats.
Don’t you just hate when that happens? In any case, we’ll take your word on it, Swift. Thanks.